Paul, the Octopus Oracle, Retires On Top

Paul, an octopus, was a recent sensation when he accurately predicated the outcome of eight World Cup games in a row; as many games as he has legs.  Now the World Cup is over and Paul, a resident of the Sea Life aquarium in Oberhausen, has retired from the oracle business and is returning to his previous job of entertaining aquarium guests.  Paul would predict the outcome of games when two clear plastic boxes were put in his tank, each with the flag of the competing team and a mollusk inside.  Paul would make his prediction by choosing which of the mollusks to eat first.

Octopus are known to have highly developed nervous systems and to be relatively intelligent. Paul is, however, is the first octopus on  record to be able to predict the future.  This isn’t easy. The best mathematical minds on Wall Street using their most advance computer modelling failed where Paul succeeded.   (See:  The Octopus That Beat Wall Street)  Matthew Craft writing for Forbes notes:

The models may have evolved since quants were blindsided by falling housing prices and the financial crisis, yet they’re still backward looking by nature. So if you’re wondering what happened in the past, ask one of the financial world’s brains. But if you’re wondering what will happen in the future, better ask an octopus.

Life has not been entirely easy for Paul once his status as oracle became widely known.  He received death threats after several of his predictions.

When he correctly intuited last week that Germany would defeat Argentina, so outraged were South American fans that they called for his execution. The newspaper El Dia helpfully printed a suggestion for Paul’s next gig — as the star of a paella recipe. And Argentinean chef Nicolas Bedorrou posted on Facebook that “We will chase him and put him on some paper. We will then beat him (but correctly!) in order to keep the meat tender and then put it in boiling water.”

Final bet: Oracle Paul the Octopus picks Spain over Netherlands to win World Cup

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